Wagga votes 2023: Major parties have conceded the seat of Wagga, says political science professor

Advertising data collected from Facebook shows incumbent Joe McGirr has spent more on social media advertising than all other local candidates combined.

Liberal Julia Ham and Greens candidate Ray Goodlass have spent $499 and $496 on Facebook advertising respectively, led slightly by Nationals Andriana Benjamin at $599.

Joe McGirr has spent a total of $1690 - more than the $1594 spent by other candidates combined.

However, this might not offer much of an advantage, as it pales in comparison to the resourcing and name recognition major party candidates may receive from their state branches.

In any Australian election, candidates for either the Labor Party, or Coalition have the advantage over an independent or minor party candidate because of party resourcing, and the brand recognition that comes from having formed every federal government since 1944 between them.

However, this legacy, and centralised thinking often leaves marginal voters - particularly those in rural and regional Australia - skeptical of whether major parties intend to represent their communities, or the interests of the colleagues from wealthier, more influential constituencies.

CSU Political Science Professor Dominic O'Sullivan said the campaign strategies employed by the major parties suggest they really don't expect to win the seat of Wagga.

"Neither party seem to be directing much of anything to the seat of Wagga," Professor O'Sullivan said.

"The ALP obviously don't expect they have a chance, which is not surprising, but the Liberals appear to be conceding the seat to the independent Joe McGirr as well.

"On the other hand, all major parties rely very heavily on their leaders to get the message ... it's the leader who's going to be premier, and people are always interested in who's going to lead the government."

The NSW Labor Party has spent more than half a million dollars on Google advertising this election cycle, with the majority dedicated to boosting the profile of Labor leader Chris Minns, and sledging the Liberal government's track record of privatising state assets.

One individual candidate is advertised; Philippa Scott, who is looking to take back the metropolitan seat of Balmain from retiring Greens MP Jamie Parker.

While Labor's Facebook ads show greater diversity in promoting individual candidates, Wagga's Keryn Foley does not rate a mention in their ubiquitous early voting ads.

Chris Minn's personal spend appears larger than the party as a whole on social media; $232,142 and $131,568 respectively.

While Labor are outspending other political parties by a wide margin, Professor O'Sullivan noted this was just one form of advertising used, and wouldn't necessarily be deterministic on election day.

Corflutes, billboards, newspaper radio and TV advertising all still impact the vote, not to mention pressing the flesh at community events and polling booths.

"Online advertising is just one sign - I don't think you can draw firm conclusions on that itself," Professor O'Sullivan said.

"Where parties dedicate their spend is to the places they think they have a chance of winning, or are vulnerable, so it may be a suggestion the major parties priorities are elsewhere - they don't view Wagga as a priority."

The NSW Liberal Party is similarly leading many of their ads with Leader Dominic Perrottet, and attacking Chris Minn's and NSW Labor's policy track record and alleged lack of experience.

It is noteworthy that although their total spend is less than half that of NSW Labor, ($223,000), they are running more ads for local candidates; even in Labor held seats like The Entrance which are theoretically within reach of the NSW Liberals. Its $146,538 Facebook advertising strategy shows a similar strategy.

Julia Ham is conspicuously absent, despite Wagga's long history as a Liberal seat.

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The Greens are running a leaner, policy based strategy, with little mention of specific candidates or their leaders.

Rental policy, and the Federal "no new coal and gas" slogan feature heavily in their Google advertising, run on a lean budget of $61,600.

Their social media campaign runs similarly, with candidates in perceived winnable seats mentioned most readily.

Professor O'Sullivan was quick to point out that the strategies employed by the state parties were not necessarily reflective of the local candidate's motivation or sincerity.

"Candidates always have to campaign to win - or what's the point in being there?," he said.

"Sometimes you do get parties who aren't expecting to win who find someone who's willing to be just a name on a ballot paper ... sometimes people who live hundreds of miles out of the electorate and are just a name.

"That strikes me as lacking in self respect, as well as lacking respect for voters, and indeed one's party. I think the fact people are running a serious campaign on the ground [in Wagga] show their respect for the community, their party, and democracy."

With the final, and most vital week of the campaign yet to go, this could be subject to change, but at the moment, Joe McGirr remains the candidate to beat.

Advertising data was collected from Google and Facebook on March 21, 2023.

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