Changing water cycle presents new risks to future of farming

Many Riverina farmers are already preparing for the increased likelihood of extreme weather events like floods and fires.

Fewer are preparing for the day to day affects of climate on their day to day access to fresh water.

Until recently, this was relatively unexplored, but new research from Griffith University suggests changes to the water cycle could have catastrophic consequences for farmers.

Lead author of the paper Adeyeri Oluwafemi said the affects of climate change on the water cycle could be catastrophic.

"Water from groundwater, rivers and rainfall is undergoing disruption in its natural cycle due to climate and land use changes, which disrupt patterns and amounts of rainfall and affect how water moves across the landscape," she said.

"Most basins in the Southern Hemisphere will get drier while basins just above the equator will get wetter.

"The projected shortages or surpluses in water storage due to climate and land use change will impact water supply and may enhance or decrease the efficiency of hydrological and agricultural systems."

The Riverina and neighbouring areas can expect a hotter drier climate, and changes to the traditional pattern of seasons.

As well as taking away water, this could bring a host of other problems to the region.

CSU agricultural scientist Asad Asaduzzaman has spent his career looking at the way farmers manage weeds on their property.

He said he is already seeing weeds like blackberries and lantana appearing more in the region.

"Summer weeds will be more dominant, because they are getting more temperature, and more water than previously," he said.

"Climate change will impact the effective use of control measures as well. Some herbicides will not be working because of high temperatures ... once a plant is in a more stressed condition, they won't uptake the chemicals.

"Other parts of the world will be facing the same problems, which can create new biosecurity risks like new pests emerging from outside the country. Governments need to invest border checking, pre-checking, post product checking, and in our domestic farming system."

The need to manage water more carefully, weeds more regularly, and battle more volatile weather make a warming climate a significant risk to the business models farmers rely on.

Horticultural products may be an area of particular risk, because they require longer term investments and greater certainty into the future to be profitable.

CSU professor emeritus and agricultural economist Kevin Parton said Australia is advantaged in this real because of it's diversity.

The existence of certain crops in warm and cool climate zones creates more certainty around their future viability.

Dr Parton said Australian farmers are adaptable, but need to stay engaged to preserve the future of their businesses.

"I think we're really well positioned, because we have crops - as in a single crop - grown in many different zones," he said.

"As a consequence, we're buffered against bad weather in, say, Victoria because we have the same crops growing in South-East Queensland.

"Water management is going to be a massive issue in the future though. It's really going to need some sensible and rational management."