South Australia could suffer between four and 51 deaths amid a 27 per cent chance of a significant COVID-19 outbreak once the state's borders open later this month, new modelling shows.
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The state government has released the data prepared by University of Adelaide scientists, who are part of the broader Doherty Institute network, which looked at three potential scenarios.
In the worst of those, which involved dropping local restrictions and also introducing vaccine certificates for high-risk activities, the state could suffer more than 400 deaths.
So far, SA has had four deaths since the start of the pandemic in early 2020.
The Liberal government says it plans to follow scenario one, which allows for the borders to open to fully vaccinated people from November 23, when the 80 per cent vaccine target is reached, and keeps all existing health measures, including mask-wearing, in place.
This predicts a 27 per cent chance of an outbreak, which is defined as "averaging more than 100 cases per day over any three-day period".
"The modelling shows scenario one is the safest way forward," Premier Steven Marshall said.
"South Australia would be able to safely manage hospital and ICU demand from COVID-19 infections generated in the community as long as there are high testing rates, contact tracing is maintained, and cases and their close contacts are quarantined."
Under scenario two, which drops some local restrictions, SA would have a 64 per cent chance of an outbreak and under scenario three, the most relaxed, the chance would rise to 84 per cent.
Under scenario one, hospital demand is considered manageable with ward occupancy to peak at around 36 beds.
The modelling found there was an extremely small chance of demand exceeding 200 beds.
Peak ICU occupancy is estimated at a median of nine beds with an extremely small chance of demand exceeding 30.
The median prediction for total deaths under this scenario is 13 over 300 days, with a total range between four and 51.
"No death is palatable but what we've got to do is be realistic that the Delta variant cannot be kept out of South Australia forever," Mr Marshall said.
"We've relied on the evidence to suggest what is the best way for prudently opening the borders."
Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier said the modelling work would be ongoing after the borders open.
She said its accuracy would continue to improve over time as COVID-19 cases and any onward transmission of infections was added.
"Of the recent modelling provided, scenario one is the safest way forward, and supports opening our borders whilst keeping current public health restrictions in place," Professor Spurrier said.
Health Minister Stephen Wade said the modelling took into account SA's local population factors such as age profile, vaccination rates throughout different age groups, testing and contact tracing capacity, as well changes in public health and social measures.
"South Australia is in a rare situation of the world - opening borders with no cases in the community," he said.
"The modelling gives us the very best picture we can have to get the settings right to open safely."
The modelling came as SA reported no new virus cases on Monday, the deadline for all health workers to have had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Mr Wade said vaccine rates were high across the public health sector with data on the number of workers to be excluded from worksites because of their vaccination status still being collated.
He said a number of those listed as unvaccinated were currently on leave, such as long-service leave or maternity leave and were expected to get the jab before returning to work.
Australian Associated Press
