New federal data suggests Wagga saw a drop in the number people in paid work during the first month of new COVID-19 restrictions.
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The Australian Bureau of Statistics index of regional payroll jobs dropped by just under four points in first month since new restrictions that came into effect at the end of June.
The new data covers the period up to July 31 and does not cover the regional stay-at-home order that placed Wagga under lockdown at short notice on August 14.
Some areas of south-western Sydney, which were already in lockdown in July, saw their payroll index drop more than three times as much as in Wagga.
While jobs were being lost in July, the number of people claiming JobSeeker unemployment payments from Centrelink did not increase in Wagga.
Murray-Riverina regional manager for Business NSW Anthony McFarlane said the emergency cash grants might be keeping people in jobs even if they are have to deal with lower pay or fewer work hours.
"From July to August we are going to see a further deterioration in total hours worked," Mr McFarlane said.
"Certainly, I would expect us to follow the trends set in Sydney and see a drop in the payroll index which would be attributable to retail sectors that are unable to open due to health orders and the effects on our accommodation and visitor economy."
The NSW government implemented new statewide rules from June 27 in response to an ongoing Delta variant outbreak in Sydney.
Pubs, nightclubs restaurants, gyms, sporting events were among the businesses specifically targeted by the new restrictions, including mandatory masks, bans on singing and dancing, and reduced capacity limits.
Despite these restrictions, the number of people claiming JobSeeker payments in Wagga dropped by 5.9 per cent during July to 2434, which is about 370 more people than before the pandemic in December 2019.
Wagga MP Joe McGirr said the city economic foundation was strong and was being helped out by demand for agriculture products.
"We may see a reduction in the payroll index when jobs are affected by the lockdown are taken into account, and that will affect hospitality in particular," he said.
"I suspect we are not going to be as badly affected as some suburbs of Sydney, which have had major shutdowns in shops for number of weeks now and much more severe restrictions."
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The payroll data suggested that Wagga's economy was in recovery prior to the Delta variant outbreak in NSW, as workers were overall earning more money in June 2021 than in February 2020.
"I think that shows our fundamentals as an economy are strong when government doesn't impose restrictions on the economy, but as we have seen that can be changed overnight and so can business confidence in what's next," Mr McFarlane said.
"For retail, this is an important time when they are restocking for Christmas trade and not knowing when we are going to come out of the restrictions could put a further damper on things if the government does not communicate clearly on the metrics behind when regional NSW comes out of lockdown."
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