Is "wild weather" the latest proof of climate change? Was Canberra's January 20 hail storm more evidence, coming while fires were still burning?
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Consider this Canberra Times report: "Police alerted fire crews and ambulance officers ... predicting mayhem and emergency situations throughout Canberra. ... motorists forced to abandon flooded cars and wade through the floodwaters ... residents frightened and panicked ... hail and wind ...
"One family who were rescued included four children who were found huddled on top of the roof, terrified ... a rush of water swept away a brick wall and fence ... he managed to get his wife and children to safety ... cars would take considerable time to fix."
A friend had her car damaged by the January 20 storm - just one of 20,000, many being write-offs.
The problem for weather alarmists is that we have always had severe storms, and always will. The Canberra Times report above was from February 12, 1959! Yes, that storm was 61 years ago. There have been many others, and there'll be many more.
The summer fires, as severe and distressing as they were, were not "unprecedented" or any other emotive word. There have been more deaths, more property damage, and more area burnt in earlier fires. The difference is that television now brings the horror to our lounge room in vivid colour.
Perhaps the horror is amplified by us knowing that these fires should not have happened. Despite the Black Friday royal commission's recommendations, last year Victoria met just one-third of its hazard reduction burn target. NSW was just as negligent.
The Dunns Road fire was started by lightning, but police are investigating more than 716 fires that did not occur naturally. Emergency Services Minister David Elliott said that police have "had to deal with 267 reckless people for bushfire-related offences."
"Since August 1 last year, police have charged 267 people for 328 bushfire-related offences. Of that number 55 people were charged with deliberately lighting bushfires, 126 people failed to comply with the total fire bans, 41 people threw cigarettes or matches on the ground and 70 minors were also charged," The Daily Telegraph reported.
Last year Victoria met just one-third of its hazard reduction burn target. NSW was just as negligent.
Last December, when I wrote that bushfire research showed 85 per cent of fires were deliberately lit, a letter writer or two expressed cynicism. That research had all been done before 2006. I hadn't seen the new research by Paul Read, an ecological criminologist and sustainability scientist at Monash University. The Sydney Morning Herald published this new report as "Arson, mischief and recklessness: 87 per cent of fires are man-made".
"Satellite studies tell us that lightning is responsible for only 13 per cent ... There were no lightning strikes on most of the days when the fires first started in September ... these fires - joining up to create a new form of mega-fire - are almost all man-made," Read said.
"A 2015 satellite analysis of 113,000 fires from 1997-2009 confirmed what we had known for some time - 40 per cent of fires are deliberately lit, another 47 per cent accidental ... This generally matches previous data published a decade earlier that about half of all fires were suspected or deliberate arson."
"Seasonal changes, in part due to climate change on top of natural oscillations causing the drought and westerly winds, have some origins in man-made emissions. More directly, however, the source of ignition is human," Read adds.
"The most dangerous (firebugs) light fires on the hottest days, generally closer to communities and during other blazes, suggesting more malicious motives."
What about the regular fires started right here in Wagga? Sometimes, kids are blamed.
"Four overlapping subgroups (of kids) include: accidental fire-play getting out of control; victims of child abuse - including sexual abuse - and neglect; children with autism and developmental disorders; and conduct disorder from a younger age, which can be genuinely dangerous," Read's report says about juveniles.
But are they just kids? "Some research suggests only a very small percentage of arsonists are ever caught," adding that "children and the dopey get caught".
What do real arsonists look like? Considering the pattern of fires this season, it is not out of the question to ask if some firebugs were politically motivated.