Bureau of Meteorology climatologist says rain due to 'Indian Ocean dipole'

The continued soaking comes after Australia’s wettest winter on record, at a time when creeks and rivers are in flood and the dams are almost full.

Climatologist Felicity Gamble said a strong weather system in the Indian Ocean was causing the increased rainfall across the region.

“At this stage the model suggests a trend to a wetter than average spring,” Ms Gamble said.

“This is largely influenced by the ‘Indian Ocean dipole’, which is a weather pattern similar to La Nina and El Nino, where changes in temperature on the surface of the ocean can impact rainfall in Australia.”

The “strongly active” driver means the accuracy of forecasts is improved, according to Ms Gamble.

“When there’s a strong and active driver like this our skill in predicting the outlook is pretty high,” she said.

“The dipole index values are some of the strongest we've seen.”

Ms Gamble also said the coming week would see high rainfall totals across much of eastern Australia.

“Throughout the next week there will be considerable rainfall across much of the east,” Ms Gamble said.

“Given the Indian Ocean dipole models, it suggests rainfall will remain reasonably strong.”

The bureau’s climatologists also produce temperature modelling, which is showing higher than average overnight temperatures for the next few weeks. Ms Gamble said it could contribute to melting snow.

“It’s unlikely we’ll see the really cold snaps that ease off the melting,” Ms Gamble said.

“But there’s not the snow depth we’ve seen in previous seasons, so that should help.”