Baillieu on brink of power

In what appeared to be an astonishing victory, the conservatives last night were being tipped to win control of both houses of parliament.

Mr Baillieu last night said Victorians had voted for change and while the outcome of the election may not be known for several days, ''Labor's vote has collapsed''.

''The Victrian people have removed the authority of this government and the authority of Mr Brumby as premier,'' Mr Baillieu told the Liberal faithful gathered at the Sofitel in the city.

''This result is a direct reflection of the failures of the government over 11 years.''

Minutes earlier, Mr Brumby, speaking at Broadmeadows, said the most likely outcome would be a hung parliament.

An emotional Mr Brumby said: ''This was always going to be a very, very tight and very, very close election.''

He said in the event of Labor retaining government he was ''more determined than ever [to] deliver a strong and stable government to the people of Victoria''.

''I know that we've been sent a loud and clear message today from the people across our great state and I've heard that message, our government has heard that message.''

But some senior Labor strategists said talk of a hung parliament was simply prolonging the inevitable, after the party suffered a statewide swing against it of 6.4 per cent.

As counting continued it appeared increasingly likely that Mr Brumby's long-held dreams of political legitimacy - yesterday was the first time he has faced the people as premier - were slipping beyond his reach last night.

One of the biggest swings against Labor was in Mr Brumby's own seat of Broadmeadows, where 12.7 per cent of the electorate stripped him of their vote.

The Coalition was poised to win 45 of the 88 lower house seats, with a further two likely to be declared today. Several remained in doubt but looked likely to fall to the Liberals.

The coalition also appeared to have won 21 of the 40 upper house seats.

With two-thirds of the vote counted, it appeared 13 seats would fall to the Coalition - a tally that would deliver Mr Baillieu government with an outright victory in the 88-member lower house.

However, Deputy Premier Rob Hulls, last night joined Mr Brumby in tipping a hung parliament, saying the result would not be known for days as an unprecedented number of Victorians - about 25 per cent - had cast early pre-poll and postal votes.

''I know this will create a lot of uncertainty for the Victorian people but we simply won't know the result for many days,'' he said. But if Labor's prediction of a hung parliament - 44 seats to each party - proves true, this would put Victoria in ''very difficult constitutional waters'' according to Monash University politics academic Dr Paul Strangio.

It was ''impossible to imagine'' either side willingly providing a speaker to the other party.

''If it's 44-44, the real possibility would be the need to go back to the polls,'' Dr Strangio said.

The government suffered unexpectedly large swings - some as high as 13 per cent - in suburban fringe areas of Melbourne, where voters are suffering from cost-of-living pressures and lack of public transport.

The Greens also suffered a crushing blow yesterday, failing to unseat Labor in Richmond, Melbourne, Northcote or Brunswick, after the Liberals' decision to preference Labor above the minor party.

Labor looked like it may have lost three members of its cabinet: Children and Early Development Minister Maxine Morand in Mount Waverley; Consumer Affairs Minister Tony Robinson in the seat of Mitcham; and cabinet secretary Tony Lupton in Prahran.

The new police minister James Merlino's seat of Monbulk was too close to call.

One of Labor's brightest stars, Jacinta Allan, who holds the regional and rural development portfolio, held her seat of Bendigo East comfortably after a huge effort from the government to save her.

However, Rob Hudson, parliamentary secretary to the premier and for the arts, was fighting for his political life last night in the seat of Bentleigh.

The government was set to lose a belt of eastern suburban seats including Olympic skier Kirstie Marshall's seat of Forest Hill, Jeff Kennett's former seat of Burwood and Mitcham.

Further south, along the bay, the Coalition looks set to pick up Carrum, the seat of Jenny Lindell, the speaker of parliament..

The expected backlash against Brumby in the bush fizzled, with little move in key marginal country seats except for South Barwon and a 10 per cent swing in Seymour.

The Nationals ended the 11-year parliamentary career of independent Craig Ingram in Gippsland East.