The government will still be in minority status but its fortunes have improved after Nationals candidate David Layzell retained the Upper Hunter seat despite his predecessor resigning over a sexual assault claim.

"I don't think [the byelection] has affected my relationship with the government; I think the government is probably slightly stronger and if there were any byelections coming up in other seats I think the government would feel pretty buoyed by the result," Dr McGirr said.

"It is a bit hard to draw conclusions from the poll as there were so many candidates and it is a byelection, so you have got to be careful, but I think the government certainly benefitted from the COVID incumbency.

"You could say that the slight turn away from the major parties continues, because they all slipped in primary vote."

Charles Sturt University associate professor in political science Dominic O'Sullivan said the result had turned back the clock for the numbers in Parliament and demonstrated a much stronger side to the National Party.

"[Dr McGirr's] position in the Parliament is back to where it was before the resignation in the Upper Hunter," professor O'Sullivan said.

University of Sydney government and international relations lecturer Dr Stewart Jackson said the Nationals had a more difficult time winning the seat than some other commentators had suggested.

"It's a weak result for a party that has held that seat for 90 years previously," he said.

Dr Jackson said the government's position left open the possibility of former Liberal ministers Gareth Ward or John Sidoti, currently sitting on the crossbench, teaming up with independent MPs such as Dr McGirr to hold up legislation or push their own agenda.

Dr McGirr said he thought it was unlikely that the ex-Liberal crossbenchers would vote against the government.

Our journalists work hard to provide local, up-to-date news to the community. This is how you can continue to access our trusted content: