Political experts have said a Labor victory in the Upper Hunter byelection could increase independent Wagga MP Joe McGirr's power in NSW Parliament.
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Multiple polls, bookmakers and Dr McGirr himself are tipping a National Party victory this weekend but NSW's optional preferential voting could still deliver a surprise result.
Charles Sturt University political science associate professor Dominic O'Sullivan said voters tended to back the incumbent parties during the pandemic and the Coalition would probably escape the same punishment that Wagga delivered in its 2018 byelection.
"My bet would be on the Nationals, but who knows? Byelections historically record protest votes but the Berejiklian government's supporters don't have anything to be terribly annoyed about at the moment and its opponents haven't really got any big issues with which to attract support," Professor O'Sullivan said.
"[In both Wagga and Upper Hunter] the sitting members were forced to resign in disgrace but the difference is the normal rules of politics were in operation in Wagga in 2018 and there was a clear alternative candidate in Joe McGirr."
Professor O'Sullivan said that if Labor did win, Dr McGirr would "still be a long way off" having the ability to bring down the NSW government, which currently has minority status.
Sportsbet shortened its odds on a Nationals victory to $1.45 yesterday afternoon and raised Labor to $3.70 with the Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Party at $8.
Previous Upper Hunter Nationals MP Michael Johnsen quit in March over a rape allegation, which he has denied, and claims that he sent lewd text messages while sitting in Parliament.
Riverina MP and federal Nationals leader Michael McCormack is due to visit the Upper Hunter on Saturday.
University of Sydney politics lecturer Dr Stewart Jackson said Dr McGirr's position would be "quite improved if the Coalition loses Upper Hunter, as it was when [former Liberal families minister Gareth] Ward went to the crossbenches".
"Of course, Ward is a reliable LNP vote, but McGirr is in an increasingly strong position," Dr Jackson said.
Dr McGirr said a Nationals victory in the Upper Hunter "was the most likely outcome".
"What we don't know is where the preferences will go. It's complicated as you have got multiple candidates and because it's optional preferential voting, people just can vote 1," he said.
Dr McGirr said the Nationals' likely reduced primary vote left them vulnerable to any flow of preferences to Labor but "if the Coalition do win, Parliament will still be on a knife edge but it will give them some confidence".
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