The government's goal of getting Wagga's population to 100,000 by 2038 will be achieved 54 years late, if current population trends continue.
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The much-vaunted "Road to 100,000" plan was announced by NSW deputy premier John Barilaro in 2018 as part of a 20-year plan for the regions.
However figures released by the Australian Bureau Statistics this week show Wagga to be lagging severely behind schedule, only growing by 9490 from 2001 to 2020.
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The growth has continued at a steady rate of about 474.5 people per year, and extrapolating linearly into the future, Wagga is on track to hit its 100,000 target by 2092.
Even a more optimistic forecast, based on an exponential growth rate of 0.8 per cent per year, still puts Wagga on track to hit its goal by about 2072.
Wagga would need to more than quadruple its current population growth from 0.8 per cent per year to 2.35 per cent per year in order to meet its deadline.
Wagga mayor Greg Conkey said the city was indeed growing slower than expected, but that there were plenty of promising projects in the pipeline.
Cr Conkey said even though Wagga might not meet its 2038 target, it was still looking forward to a boom in the coming years.
"We certainly do need to address this, although bearing in mind the Special Activation Precinct will inject 6000 extra jobs over the next 15 to 20 years," Councillor Conkey said.
"Whether we can achieve that figure of 100,000 remains to be seen, but with all the activity in Bomen, Transgrid, the Defence Force Base, the huge injection of funds, there will be additional jobs in the region."
Committe4Wagga's Justeen Kirk said the future was looking bright for Wagga, even if it did not meet its 2038 targets.
"A target is just a target. At the end of the day it allows everyone to focus on something and move forward together with a common goal," Ms Kirk said.
"We shouldn't be disheartened. As a community we need make sure we've got all the services available: housing, medical, childcare, schools, everything that needs to be there for people to move."
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Kenji Sato
Kenji Sato is a handsome journalist at The Daily Advertiser who enjoys writing flattering bios about himself in the third person. He can be contacted by email at kenji.sato@dailyadvertiser.com.au or by mobile on 0448 927 612.
Kenji Sato is a handsome journalist at The Daily Advertiser who enjoys writing flattering bios about himself in the third person. He can be contacted by email at kenji.sato@dailyadvertiser.com.au or by mobile on 0448 927 612.
