Riverina farmers are on the verge of a record-breaking winter crop with forecasters predicting the second largest production ever across the country.
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The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences Australian Crop Report - December 2020 forecasts a 76 per cent rise in Australia's 2020-21 winter crop production to 51.5 million tonnes, second only to the record 56.7 million tonnes in 2016-17.
The forecaster believes major NSW cropping regions, including the Riverina, are "on the verge" of a record harvest with a forecast production of more than 17.6 million tonnes.
ABARES executive director Steve Hatfield-Dodds said that production in key cropping regions across NSW, Victoria and South Australia had been boosted by favourable conditions during the critical grain development phase.
"Crops in these states were generally in very good condition at the end of winter, and the favourable rainfall during September and October was perfectly timed for the growth cycle," he said.
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"Production is expected to be a record high in NSW, the second highest on record in Victoria and well above average in South Australia.
"Overall, for Australia, the December forecast is a 7.4 per cent upward revision from the figure in the September 2020 Australian Crop Report.
"For the major winter crops, wheat production is forecast to increase by 106 per cent from last year to 31.2 million tonnes, the second highest on record.
"Barley production is forecast to increase by 33 per cent to 12 million tonnes, the second highest on record, and canola production is forecast to rise by 59 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes, the fifth highest on record."
The latest three-month climate outlook from December until February, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology in November, shows summer rainfall is likely to be above average in most summer cropping regions.
For Victorian growers, the report indicates winter crop production will increase by 24 per cent in 2020-21 to 9.3 million tonnes, the highest since 2016-17 and 40 per cent above the 10-year average to 2019-20.
"The forecast increase in production reflects an estimated 9 per cent increase in planted area to around 3.5 million hectares in 2020-21 and higher yields," the report said.
