Riverina MP Michael McCormack says it is too early to judge if unemployment has peaked in the electorate after the first drop in people claiming Centrelink payments during the pandemic.
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A Department of Social Services report showed that 120 fewer people claimed jobless support from Centrelink in June.
It was the the first recorded decrease since the number soared by more than 3000 people during the initial three months of the pandemic, to a total of 8353 JobSeeker payments.
There has yet to be a recorded drop in the number of people within Wagga City Council boundaries claiming Centrelink support.
"It is encouraging to see JobSeeker payment recipient numbers going down, however, it is premature to say the Riverina and Central West has turned a corner regarding the economic downturn experienced from the COVID-19 pandemic," Mr McCormack said.
"There are positive signs - the Regional Australia Institute has identified 40,000 jobs in regional Australia available right now.
"I must stress that we still have a long way to go on the road to recovery. The Riverina and Central West is not immune to potential outbreaks and people need to continue to be their best selves to ensure we get through this in the best way possible - both from a health and an economic perspective."
The same report showed that the number of people living in the Wagga local government area and claiming JobSeeker increased from 2281 in March to 3399 in June.
Due to the report's lack of numbers for the month of May, it was unclear if Wagga has seen any decrease in unemployment payments since coronavirus restrictions came into force.
NSW Business Riverina Murray regional manager Andrew Cottrill said the electorate's drop in numbers was a good sign and matched what he was seeing on the ground.
"It means that we are starting to see the recovery kick in. We did see that in our latest survey data; there was a genuine upkick in coincidence in the economy, propensity to employ and sales revenue," he said.
Mr Cottrill said he would need to wait for more numbers on Centrelink numbers in Wagga but said there had been a "steep" rise in other positive economic indicators for the city.
"Businesses are telling us that they are confident that things will come back fairly quickly," he said.
"We know it is happening. People are going back to work. There are more issues down at the border due to the border closure but Wagga, we're hearing, is coming back fairly well."
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St Vincent de Paul Wagga council president Peter Burgess said the charity had started seeing new people coming in for support to help make ends meet.
"There are people who have been working and were used to an income but are now using their savings and superannuation on expenses like the mortgage," he said.
"Ironically, we have seen fewer people who regularly sought help before the pandemic as the welfare payments have been higher."
Mr Burgess said he expected more people to come forward for help after JobSeeker payments were reduced by $300 a fortnight at the end of September.
"It's scary. They can't go back to living on $40 a day. You just can't afford all the basic dignities of life on that," he said.
"We're going to see more people coming in, starting from October."