Too close to call.
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That was the expectation going into the Wagga byelection, and that was the reality when counting closed just before midnight last night.
With 46,272 votes counted, Independent Joe McGirr (24.74 per cent) held a narrow lead over Liberal contender Julia Ham (24.22 per cent) and Labor’s Dan Hayes (23 per cent).
It is impossible to say with any certainty who will emerge as the new Member for Wagga Wagga.
In fact, it will likely take until well into next week for a winner to be declared.
It does appear the Liberals have lost the seat, with the most likely scenario that it will come down to Dr McGirr and Mr Hayes.
But whatever the final result, this has been a disastrous byelection for the Coalition government.
A 30 per cent swing away from the Liberal Party – a seat it has held for more than 60 years – is not just bad, but potentially crippling for the government just six months out from the general election.
The Berejiklian government will attempt to absolve itself from blame by pointing to the chaos that has enveloped the federal Coalition in recent weeks.
But don’t be fooled.
The Daily Advertiser has spoken to countless voters in the weeks leading up to the ballot, as well as on polling day, about what they would base their vote on.
The ugly events in Canberra that led to yet another change in prime minister barely rated a mention.
Health, education, roads, infrastructure and cost of living pressures were continually cited by voters as the most important issues.
Despite the Coalition splashing about $150 million in promises and sending at least 17 of its 23 ministers to Wagga during the campaign, there was a sense among voters the seat had been ignored for too long.
Then there was the Liberals’ politically driven decision not to allow The Nationals to contest the seat, putting their own interests above the electorate’s.
And, of course, you cannot overlook what started all of this, the revelations that long-serving Liberal MP Daryl Maguire was more interested in soliciting kickbacks from developers than representing the people of Wagga.
All these factors combined to form a perfect storm to batter the Coalition.
While we do not yet know the winner, one thing for sure is that the seat of Wagga Wagga is finally relevant again in NSW politics.