The Wagga byelection is likely to be decided on preferences, and the new MP may take days to emerge, says a political expert.
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Stewart Jackson, a lecturer in politics at the University of Sydney, was commenting on internal polling from The Nationals which showed the byelection would be a tightly fought contest.
The figures, seen by The Daily Advertiser on Friday, show the Liberal Party’s Julia Ham had 27 per cent of the support, with Labor’s Dan Hayes on 21 per cent and independent Joe McGirr on 19 per cent.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers’ Seb McDonagh was on 10 per cent, with independent Paul Funnell at 9 per cent.
The Greens’ Ray Goodlass was on 4 per cent, with Tom Arentz of the Christian Democratic Party on 3 per cent.
About 7 per cent of voters said they were undecided.
Dr Jackson described the polling numbers as a “dog’s breakfast”.
“It’s going to go down to the wire,” he said.
“Preferences will be going all over the place. It’s way too close to call.”
Dr Jackson said the figures pointed to a significant drop in support for the Liberals, which could be partly attributed to the federal leadership spill and election of a new prime minister.
He predicted that with preferences likely to determine the outcome, there could be a greater benefit to Dr McGirr than to Mr Hayes.
“The question will be whether Dr McGirr gets past the Liberals,” Dr Jackson said.
“With postals still coming in [after polling day], it could even be several days before Wagga has a new MP.”
CSU’s Associate Professor Dominic O’Sullivan is also convinced the new Wagga MP will be decided on preferences and said the new polling indicated a close fight between Ms Ham, Mr Hayes and Dr McGirr.
He said there was likely to be some voter backlash against both the disgraced former Member for Wagga Daryl Maguire and the Liberal Party in general after the week’s events in Canberra.
Professor O’Sullivan said the Liberal numbers could also be further affected by voters who had been hoping to back a Nationals candidate.
“Given that the outcome won’t change the government, it is also possible some voters will be more inclined to see this as the chance for a protest vote,” he said.
“Then it becomes an issue in eight months’ time – at the general election – as to whether the Liberals’ vote will still be so low because the anger could have faded.”
The Nationals’ figures showed just 13 per cent of those polled were influenced by “the behaviour of the previous Member for Wagga”, while 14 per cent said the federal leadership spill had an effect.
