The two MPs' departure would leave the government vulnerable to losing votes against the opposition combined with the minor parties and independents like Dr McGirr, who could hold much more sway, according to political experts.

Mulgoa MP Tanya Davies and Riverstone MP Kevin Conolly have flagged moving to the crossbench if a bill to decriminalise abortion goes through the upper house in its current form.

Two political academics have told The Daily Advertiser that if the two Liberals leave the Coalition it could grant Dr McGirr a better bargaining position in terms of securing funding for the electorate or on legislation.

University of Sydney government and international relations lecturer Stewart Jackson said Dr McGirr, as one of three current independents, would definitely have more power under a minority government.

"It does allow the independents and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party to then negotiate directly with the government on key legislation," Dr Jackson said.

A spokesperson for Dr McGirr said the MP declined to comment as it was an internal party matter for the Liberals.

Charles Sturt University political science professor Dominic O'Sullivan said the government would likely receive enough votes to pass its budgets under a minority scenario but would have to bargain to pass other bills.

"The government would need two votes from the crossbench to get its legislation through," Dr O'Sullivan said.

"The independents would be in a position to seek policy positions or raise issues that were of particular concern to their electorate or seek trade-off as part of the negotiation process.

"Independents are certainly more influential when there is a minority government."

Both experts said what happens next would depend on Premier Gladys Berejiklian's response to the threat, which included a demand that gender-selection abortion be banned in NSW.

"A threat is a threat: it's nothing until it's acted upon," Dr Jackson said.

Dr O'Sullivan said Ms Berejiklian would "obviously be keen for (Ms Davies and Mr Conolly) to stay within the Liberal Party and preserve her government's majority in the Parliament.

"It just depends on how big the divisions are and what kind of arrangement can be made that the two members feel they can stay within the government," he said.

Ms Davies, a former Minister for Mental Health and Women, tried without success to pass a gender selection abortion ban amendment in the lower house last month.

READ MORE:

The bill to decriminalise abortion could be amended in the upper house when debate resumes later this month.

Dr Jackson said Dr McGirr's general election victory in March at a time when polls were predicting a hung parliament, suggested that many Wagga voters wanted their MP to hold the balance of power.

"Country independents have always done reasonably well because they are able to negotiate with both sides and actually achieve something," Dr Jackson said.