Polls can be a hotbed of uncertainty, jumping around from week to week like a kid on a pogo stick.

But there are election oracles we can turn to – gamblers.

Bookies’ odds have an uncanny record of predicting elections, routinely outperforming some of the nation’s top pollsters.

Roman bookies ran numbers on the election of Renaissance popes until Gregory XIV banned the practice on penalty of ex-communication.

Polls tend to reflect what people are thinking at a given moment and elicit an emotional response.

Betting markets are dispassionate, forcing punters to think hard about who they think will win since they’re putting cash on the line.

So when bookmaking behemoth Sportsbet listed Riverina MP Michael McCormack as scorching hot $1.001 favourite to hold the seat on Saturday, you better believe it carries some weight.

The bookie told The Daily Advertiser the punters had piled the money on Mr McCormack since markets opened.

His odds are so prohibitively short, a $1000 bet would return a punter the princely sum of $1 profit.

His next closest rival, Labor’s Tim Kurylowicz, is $21.

And if you thought Iceland beating England in Euro 2016 this week was an upset, any candidate knocking off the Riverina incumbent would be the boilover of the century.

A flurry of election promises during the campaign from Mr McCormack – including levee bank funding, the Dunns Road upgrade and mobile blackspot cash – will only serve to tighten his grip on the seat.

This is not to detract from the performance of Mr McCormack’s rivals.

In particular, Mr Kurylowicz, Richard Foley and Kevin Poynter have campaigned with vision and vigour.

But knocking off a popular incumbent in a rusted-on conservative seat is a bridge too far. The best Labor and the Greens can hope for is to chip away at the margin. 

Much has been said about the need to make Riverina a more marginal seat and it's hard to argue with that logic. 

But it’s also hard to argue an effective local member should not be rewarded for his efforts.